So, how did I do?
I accurately predicted 64 out of the 65 teams in the field. To be quite honest, it wasn't that difficult a task. First, 31 of the teams receive automatic bids - the winners of their respective conference championships, and the Ivy League regular season winner. So, in essence, I'm only predicting the 34 at-large invitations.
Most of the at-large invitations are fairly easy - teams like North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Oklahoma, or Kansas. Where it gets really difficult is deciding between a team that finishes in the middle of the pack in one of the power conferences, such as the ACC or Big Ten, versus perhaps a team that either finished first or second in the regular season in a smaller conference such as the WCC or the Missouri Valley. This where all the pundits spend their time justifying Team A or Team B.
For me, it came down to about 8-10 teams to slot into about 4 spots. I generally went with the following criteria (not necessarily in order):
Must have a 0.500 or better record in conference
RPI (as best I could get it from Yahoo! Sports)
Strength of Schedule
Who really knows what criteria the selection committee applies? We're not there - all we see are the final selections.
Using my criteria, I projected San Diego St in (4th in the Mountain West, and runner-up in their tournament). Also, because of my self-imposed rule of having a 0.500 or better record in conference, Maryland wasn't even a consideration (see my bubble list). Clearly, the selection committee didn't use that as part of their selection logic.
So there you have it, I now consider myself a bracketologist - I can rival any expert out there.
